Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x772c…804a world 56 markets active 3h ago coverage 730d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$5,844 (+21%) realized +$5,981 · open −$137
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 35L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$507per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,611
7 days+$2,556
14 days+$2,556
30 days+$2,138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$6,258
politics 4% −$272
sports 1% −$99
other 0% −$43
economics 0% −$10
crypto 0% +$10
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +22.4% +10.7% 50% 50% +27.8%
≤30d 3 +10.9% +0.4% 33% 33% +10.4%
≤90d 9 -30.0% -36.7% 33% 33% +11.3%
all 49 -32.8% -39.2% 29% 29% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 29% +10.2%
10% -45.0% 24% -0.3%
15% -50.3% 20% -10.0%
20% -55.2% 18% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$529 vs −$41 · ×12.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.18 per $1 lost it wins $5.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

730d coverage
Net worth$825
Realized+$5,981
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 35
Open positions7
Markets (closed)49 / 56
History coverage730d
Avg bet$507
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No $500 $375 −$125 (-25%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 81¢ 94¢ $200 $234 +$34 (+17%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $200 $156 −$44 (-22%)
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 11¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5,200 +$2,611 +50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $1,000 −$55 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3,500 −$418 -12%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $320 −$311 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $15,981 +$4,243 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 May 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 12 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 18 $413 +$280 +68%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 70 and 80 minutes Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 90 and 100 minutes Feb 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 80 and 90 minutes Feb 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $103 −$103 -99%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? Jan 15 $30 −$25 -82%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)? Jan 15 $20 −$11 -56%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)? Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? Jan 07 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Jan 07 $10 +$1 +14%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Jan 07 $20 +$6 +32%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 07 $125 +$26 +20%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela in 2025? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Alabama (-5.5) Nov 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Clemson (-41.5) Nov 23 $6 +$6 +96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 23 $10 +$23 +233%
Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-07? Nov 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Raiders vs. Broncos Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 01 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 30 $3 −$3 -100%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia"? Oct 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference? Oct 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 15 $25 −$10 -39%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 06 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Sep 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Sep 03 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Sep 03 $20 +$101 +506%
Will Trump debate Kamala on Sept 10? Sep 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump + Biden debate on June 27 as planned? Jul 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Doug Burgum win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Jul 27 $47 +$57 +122%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jun 30 $10 +$8 +78%
Biden closes eyes for 3+ seconds during the debate? Jun 28 $5 −$2 -33%
Is $DJT real? Jun 27 $25 +$23 +89%
Will Shkreli escrow $100m? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $500 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,315 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $439 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $584 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $492 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $1,347 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $834 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $1,174 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $2,118 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 58¢ $453 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $587 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,000 33d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $207 34d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? SELL No $9 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $300 34d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY No $320 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $600 35d
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31 BUY Yes $80 35d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $100 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $800 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $200 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $600 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $50 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $400 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $400 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $400 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $789 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,000 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $391 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $360 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $825.36 · official $825.57 (match) · 441 history records