Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7729…2d9e crypto 738 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (177 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11,877 (-30%) realized −$11,877 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate81%596W / 142L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day176.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,889
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (177 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -7.5% -16.3% 80% 7% -14.7%
≤30d 738 -8.7% -17.4% 81% 5% -13.9%
≤90d 738 -8.7% -17.4% 81% 5% -13.9%
all 738 -8.7% -17.4% 81% 5% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover176.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 5% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 4% -22.1%
15% -32.5% 2% -29.6%
20% -39.1% 1% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$23 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,877
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses596 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)738 / 738
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day176.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 738 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$16 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $19 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $13 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $12 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $13 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records