Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7725…ae7d crypto 34 markets active 3d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-13%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.8% -23.9% 53% 40% -25.3%
≤30d 34 -17.1% -25.0% 53% 41% -25.7%
≤90d 34 -17.1% -25.0% 53% 41% -25.7%
all 34 -17.1% -25.0% 53% 41% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 41% -25.7%
10% -32.1% 26% -32.8%
15% -38.7% 12% -39.3%
20% -44.7% 9% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records