Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7722…b0c2 politics 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 143L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$10
other 23% −$19
sports 21% −$11
crypto 12% −$19
economics 6% −$7
world 4% $0
culture 4% −$5
finance 2% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 59 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 160 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage168d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $282 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $47 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 21 $56 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 21 $447 +$1 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $449 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $422 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 19 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $394 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $37 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $429 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $80 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $572 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $59 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $246 −$3 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $299 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $330 −$3 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $288 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $574 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $67 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $66 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $66 11d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 19d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 19d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $47 29d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $47 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $37 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $37 41d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 64d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 64d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $56 64d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $56 65d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 65d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $50 65d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $61 65d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $61 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $55 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $56 65d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $52 65d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $52 66d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $38 66d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $38 66d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $48 66d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $48 66d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 91¢ $43 66d
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 92¢ $43 66d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $46 66d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $47 67d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.26 · official $67.26 (match) · 672 history records