trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 67¢ | 68¢ | $67 | $68 | +$2 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $77 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 13 | $144 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $61 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $114 | +$2 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $73 | −$10 | -14% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $26 | −$4 | -14% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Jun 10 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 10 | $96 | −$1 | -1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Jun 08 | $3 | $0 | +4% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $57 | +$26 | +45% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 06 | $64 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 06 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $187 | $0 | +0% |
| Wimbledon: Draper vs. Baez | Dec 12 | $20 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Jun 26 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Jun 23 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? | Jun 22 | $8 | −$4 | -45% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between | Jun 21 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 20 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? | Jun 20 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 19 | $1 | −$1 | -46% |
| Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe | Jun 19 | $3 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? | Jun 18 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? | Jun 17 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Starmer out before July? | Jun 17 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 16 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 50% | 10% | -7.8% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 54% | 8% | -8.3% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 54% | 8% | -8.3% |
| all | 26 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 35% | 8% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.9% | 8% | -8.7% |
| 10% | -19.4% | 8% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -27.2% | 4% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -34.3% | 0% | -32.7% |