Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
77 0x7716…0a53 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$176 (+37%) realized +$174 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$128
14 days+$184
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$147
other 9% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +41.9% +28.4% 50% 50% +27.0%
≤30d 24 +50.4% +36.1% 54% 54% +32.0%
≤90d 24 +50.4% +36.1% 54% 54% +32.0%
all 24 +50.4% +36.1% 54% 54% +32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.1% 54% +32.0%
10% +23.0% 50% +19.4%
15% +11.2% 50% +7.8%
20% +0.3% 50% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +85% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$16 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage8d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs Zizou Bergs 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 26¢ 25¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 +$15 +152%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $20 +$30 +149%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola Jun 25 $20 +$36 +177%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$52 +510%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Ugo Humbert vs. Quentin Halys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $20 +$17 +82%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle Jun 24 $31 +$67 +220%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $20 +$38 +188%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $10 +$9 +89%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $20 +$17 +86%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -90%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $36 +$40 +112%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $5 +$1 +17%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $7 +$27 +383%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $10 +$14 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $10 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie SELL Michael Zheng 99¢ $0 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie SELL Michael Zheng 99¢ $50 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 39¢ $20 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 38¢ $20 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 26¢ $20 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola SELL Max Basing 99¢ $57 4d
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Grigor Dimitrov 40¢ $20 4d
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 53¢ $20 4d
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Luciano Darderi 34¢ $10 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys BUY Quentin Halys 30¢ $10 4d
Ugo Humbert vs. Quentin Halys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 39¢ $15 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola BUY Max Basing 35¢ $20 4d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 39¢ $20 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Gabriel Diallo 100¢ $37 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle SELL Vilius Gaubas 99¢ $98 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle BUY Vilius Gaubas 52¢ $10 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle BUY Vilius Gaubas 25¢ $10 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 100¢ $59 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs BUY Daniel Altmaier 22¢ $10 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle BUY Vilius Gaubas 25¢ $10 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 34¢ $20 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs BUY Daniel Altmaier 39¢ $20 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 44¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.70 · official $56.70 (match) · 56 history records