Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7714…0720 world 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$460 (+7%) realized +$704 · open −$244
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%92W / 132L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$380
other 16% +$255
crypto 12% +$60
sports 8% −$304
politics 1% +$28
finance 0% −$30
tech 0% +$13
culture 0% −$10
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.4% -19.8% 44% 44% -4.7%
≤30d 16 -30.1% -36.8% 38% 38% -36.5%
≤90d 55 -28.0% -34.9% 42% 36% -18.5%
all 224 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 36% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 36% -0.4%
10% -22.8% 34% -9.9%
15% -30.3% 32% -18.6%
20% -37.1% 28% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$16 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$704
Unrealized−$244
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses92 / 132
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)224 / 233
History coverage142d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ $50 $18 −$32 (-64%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-73%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ $50 $10 −$40 (-79%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes $30 $6 −$24 (-80%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 11¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-84%)
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30? Yes 10¢ $60 $5 −$55 (-92%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 23¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $26 +$11 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$104 +203%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 22 $13 +$10 +75%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 May 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? May 12 $38 +$8 +20%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? May 12 $90 +$11 +12%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $372 +$271 +73%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30? May 08 $21 −$21 -100%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by April 30? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? May 08 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $50 −$12 -24%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $50 +$45 +90%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 07 $9 +$12 +140%
Will Iran strike Yemen in March? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $330 −$330 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $10 −$3 -30%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? Apr 02 $65 +$28 +43%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 29 $96 +$8 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $47 +$31 +66%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Mar 24 $15 +$23 +153%
Will FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 11¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over $10 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes $37 23h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $26 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $155 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 7d
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 14d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7? BUY Yes $50 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $8 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY No 10¢ $100 23d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY No $10 23d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY No $20 26d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $21 29d
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes $10 30d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL Yes 20¢ $8 34d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 34d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 34d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL Yes $31 34d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $75 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.06 · official $111.08 (match) · 837 history records