Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
77 0x7713…42e2 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,644 (-51%) realized −$3,640 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$442per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$750
7 days−$1,329
14 days−$3,699
30 days−$3,699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$2,252
sports 14% −$987
crypto 9% −$165
world 4% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-84.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -82.5% -84.1% 0% 0% -67.2%
≤30d 14 -82.7% -84.3% 7% 7% -58.3%
≤90d 14 -82.7% -84.3% 7% 7% -58.3%
all 14 -82.7% -84.3% 7% 7% -58.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.3% 7% -58.3%
10% -85.8% 0% -62.3%
15% -87.2% 0% -65.9%
20% -88.5% 0% -69.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -83% → late -82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$397 vs −$315 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$3,640
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage13d
Avg bet$442
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $34 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $459 −$452 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $625 −$165 -26%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $55 −$53 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $82 −$80 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $151 −$149 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $127 −$124 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $601 −$307 -51%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,010 +$397 +20%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $972 −$945 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,013 −$987 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $195 −$190 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$301 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$43 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $35 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $459 29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $460 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $38 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $82 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $151 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $625 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $127 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 26¢ $139 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 30¢ $155 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $601 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,407 11d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $972 12d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,013 12d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,010 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $195 12d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 12d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 12d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 12d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $44 12d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.99 · official $127.99 (match) · 25 history records