Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
77 0x7712…155a other 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$12,639 (+13%) realized +$10,580 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate64%121W / 68L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$513per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$1,279
14 days+$2,320
30 days+$3,525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$10,045
sports 4% +$95
politics 2% +$379
world 0% +$44
crypto 0% +$39
tech 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +30.3% +17.9% 92% 31% +6.8%
≤30d 49 +16.0% +5.0% 76% 33% +0.2%
≤90d 189 +19.1% +7.7% 64% 34% +0.9%
all 189 +19.1% +7.7% 64% 34% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.7% 34% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here -2.6% 20% -8.7%
15% -12.0% 12% -17.5%
20% -20.6% 7% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$25 · ×4.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.35 per $1 lost it wins $7.35
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,580
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses121 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage79d
Avg bet$513
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast say "Apple" during his next video? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Keir Starmer say "Renewable" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? No 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? No 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? No 17¢ 0¢ $279 $0 −$279 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? No 18¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? No 5¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Trump post "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" on Truth Social this week? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? No 6¢ 0¢ $131 $0 −$131 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? No 13¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,553 +$136 +5%
Will Trump post "Barack Hussein Obama" on Truth Social this week? Jun 13 $95 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $125 −$15 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $787 +$376 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,476 +$81 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Trump post "Israel" on Truth Social this week? Jun 11 $323 +$18 +6%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 11 $197 +$15 +8%
Will Trump post "Gold" or "Golden" on Truth Social this week? Jun 11 $301 +$18 +6%
Will Trump post "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" on Truth Socia Jun 10 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $219 +$51 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $607 +$505 +83%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $877 +$62 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $1,160 +$82 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $282 +$88 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1,862 +$83 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $69 −$32 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $69 +$13 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3,126 +$570 +18%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,241 +$51 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $2,664 +$194 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $69 −$7 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $220 +$22 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $303 +$199 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $506 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $58 −$14 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $808 +$83 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $185 −$36 -20%
Will Trump post "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on Truth Social this week? May 26 $156 +$39 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $4,890 +$385 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $229 −$14 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $173 −$21 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $150 −$18 -12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $1,337 +$34 +2%
Will Trump post "Crooked" on Truth Social this week? May 23 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $5,850 +$867 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $336 +$29 +9%
Will Trump post "Sleepy Joe" on Truth Social this week? May 19 $156 +$15 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $698 +$23 +3%
Will Trump post "Transgender" on Truth Social this week? May 18 $112 +$18 +16%
Will Trump post "Gold" or "Golden" on Truth Social this week? May 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Trump post "New York" on Truth Social this week? May 18 $156 +$13 +9%
Will Trump post "Fake News" on Truth Social this week? May 18 $129 +$10 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $791 −$342 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1,403 −$162 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $18 −$9 -48%
Will Trump post "Game" on Truth Social this week? May 16 $146 +$25 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $129 +$47 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $2,131 +$228 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $15 11m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $106 11m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $7 11m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $129 11m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $60 12m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $77 12m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $49 13m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $110 13m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $68 14m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $39 14m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $53 14m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $7 17m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $226 17m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $47 17m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $140 17m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $66 17m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $328 19m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $328 19m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $70 19m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $104 20m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $227 20m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $61 20m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $227 23m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $227 23m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $85 24m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $28 26m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $36 27m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $142 30m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $50 30m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $102 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records