Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x7712…3631 other 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$34
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$43
sports 23% −$18
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$10
crypto 4% −$1
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 163 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage140d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $593 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $292 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 22 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $454 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $617 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $563 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $750 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $264 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $629 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $294 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $131 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $361 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $579 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $647 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $604 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $242 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $298 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $500 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $686 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $616 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $528 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $222 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $227 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $280 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 1h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 3h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 7h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 9h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 10h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 12h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $63 19h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 20h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 23h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 25h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 25h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 26h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 41h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 43h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 44h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 46h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $64 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $64 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1418 history records