Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

77 0x770f…c848 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate62%13W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$43

7 days−$83

14 days−$97

30 days−$97

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-27.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-9.6%	-18.2%	71%	57%	-5.9%
≤30d	21	-19.3%	-27.0%	62%	52%	-7.5%
≤90d	21	-19.3%	-27.0%	62%	52%	-7.5%
all	21	-19.3%	-27.0%	62%	52%	-7.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.0%	52%	-7.5%
10%	-34.0%	33%	-16.3%
15%	-40.4%	14%	-24.4%
20%	-46.2%	5%	-31.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

15% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -22% → late -17% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$30 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses13 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage8d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	Jun 26	$67	−$66	-99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$59	+$7	+12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$46	+$14	+29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$69	−$23	-33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$57	+$22	+38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$44	+$14	+31%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$164	−$119	-72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$100	+$15	+14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$138	+$12	+8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$126	+$12	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$95	+$31	+33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$37	+$4	+12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$33	+$4	+12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$5	+$2	+36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	+$3	+67%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo?	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	BUY Yes	87¢	$26	1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	BUY Yes	59¢	$40	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	89¢	$59	7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	77¢	$46	7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	44¢	$46	8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$69	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$5	26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$57	26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	76¢	$44	33h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	23¢	$44	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$115	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$1	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$49	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	88¢	$50	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$50	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$138	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$126	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	82¢	$53	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$42	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$37	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$33	6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$5	8d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$5	8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$5	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	8d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	8d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo?	BUY Yes	80¢	$5	8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$5	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records