Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x770e…7640
world · 138 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
+$1,709 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,292 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,460
Realized+$5,292
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses60 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$451
Open positions29
Markets (closed)111 / 138
History coverage82d
Avg bet$488
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 29 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$849
14 days+$782
30 days+$3,196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 42¢ 45¢ $491 $529 +$38 (+8%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $552 $526 −$27 (-5%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $335 $401 +$66 (+20%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $360 $372 +$12 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 20¢ $282 $255 −$27 (-9%)
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? No 86¢ 91¢ $208 $220 +$12 (+6%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 42¢ 46¢ $169 $186 +$18 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? No 18¢ 18¢ $147 $154 +$7 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 23¢ 22¢ $150 $139 −$11 (-8%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $103 $113 +$10 (+10%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? No 16¢ 22¢ $43 $58 +$15 (+34%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $66 $53 −$13 (-20%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $122 $51 −$71 (-58%)
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $44 $50 +$6 (+14%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 31¢ 43¢ $34 $47 +$13 (+37%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 30¢ 21¢ $60 $42 −$18 (-31%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+13%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+20%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-63%)
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+39%)
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30 Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 62¢ 51¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $250 +$151 +60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $580 +$9 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $219 −$102 -47%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 13 $197 +$2 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $240 −$27 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $581 +$174 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 09 $175 −$55 -31%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 09 $22 −$11 -51%
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? Jun 09 $115 −$35 -30%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 09 $76 +$1 +2%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 09 $137 −$22 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $96 +$162 +169%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,632 +$620 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $232 −$17 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $87 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $46 +$4 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $136 −$72 -53%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 30 $33 +$51 +154%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $761 −$75 -10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $556 +$159 +28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $392 +$44 +11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $304 +$2,417 +794%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $312 −$162 -52%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? May 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $2,974 +$1,669 +56%
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Horm May 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $204 −$41 -20%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 04 $496 −$49 -10%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $497 −$269 -54%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30? Apr 30 $64 −$64 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 29 $207 −$207 -100%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 29 $149 −$94 -63%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 28 $649 −$254 -39%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 28 $171 +$24 +14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 28 $126 −$121 -95%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $11,800 −$70 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $5 $0 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 18 $950 +$135 +14%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $1,456 −$38 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 17 $320 −$320 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $346 +$136 +39%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $5,123 +$138 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 17 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 15 $336 +$52 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% +$5,847
sports 19% −$80
finance 13% −$87
other 2% −$330
politics 0% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $136 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 17¢ $51 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 18¢ $72 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $10 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $5 3m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $135 7m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 43¢ $169 8m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 12m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 14m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $56 14m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 14m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 15m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 15m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 16m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 18m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 18m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 18m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 18m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 18m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 18m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $13 18m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $15 19m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $43 19m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $57 19m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 22m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 22m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +6.6% -3.5% 44% 25% +6.7%
≤30d 28 +32.0% +19.5% 50% 32% +30.3%
≤90d 111 +15.5% +4.5% 54% 32% -0.9%
all 111 +15.5% +4.5% 54% 32% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 32% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 28% -10.4%
15% -14.7% 20% -19.0%
20% -23.0% 15% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,460.35 · official $3,460.35 (match) · 3500 history records