Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

77 0x770d…585c sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$334 (+42%) realized +$241 · open +$93

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +59% what you keep after slip

Net edge+59%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$267per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+58.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+75.3%	+58.6%	100%	100%	+47.8%
≤30d	2	+75.3%	+58.6%	100%	100%	+47.8%
≤90d	2	+75.3%	+58.6%	100%	100%	+47.8%
all	2	+75.3%	+58.6%	100%	100%	+47.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+58.6%	100%	+47.8%
10%	+43.4%	100%	+33.7%
15%	+29.5%	100%	+20.7%
20%	+16.8%	100%	+8.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +63% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +75% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$158 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$387

Realized+$241

Unrealized+$93

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$267

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Belgium	68¢	90¢	$294	$387	+$93 (+32%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$400	+$222	+55%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 25	$100	+$95	+95%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	68¢	$200	1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	68¢	$100	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	98¢	$622	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$100	12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$300	12h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	50¢	$100	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.25 · official $331.00 · 7 history records