Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x770b…89c9 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$1
other 12% −$1
weather 5% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 0% -10.1%
all 20 -2.3% -11.6% 55% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -10.1%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 22 $6 $0 -1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $2 −$1 -83%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 8? Mar 11 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $37 39m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 39m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $26 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $25 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $6 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $36 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $42 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $42 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $42 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $42 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $19 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 12d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $1 368d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 96¢ $2 385d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 399d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? BUY No 98¢ $2 426d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $1 440d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? BUY No 97¢ $15 457d
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 457d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records