Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x770a…3c9b crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$845 (-10%) realized −$845 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate83%19W / 4L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$380per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$565
7 days−$581
14 days−$581
30 days−$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$277
world 31% −$847
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 81% 24% -17.0%
≤30d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 83% 22% -15.4%
≤90d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 83% 22% -15.4%
all 23 -0.6% -10.1% 83% 22% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 22% -15.4%
10% -18.7% 4% -23.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -30.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$259 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$845
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses19 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage24d
Avg bet$380
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $402 +$28 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $602 +$41 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $500 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $302 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $329 +$60 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $398 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $307 −$46 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $303 +$49 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $302 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $503 +$37 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $226 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $202 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $126 +$10 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,206 −$845 -70%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $329 −$17 -5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $985 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $58 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $84 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $264.11 · 132 history records