Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

77 0x770a…adde other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$34 (+16%) realized +$34 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate71%10W / 4L

Drawdown33%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$19

7 days+$19

14 days+$19

30 days+$19

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+11.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+24.0%	+12.1%	100%	67%	+21.6%
≤30d	3	+24.0%	+12.1%	100%	67%	+21.6%
≤90d	14	+22.6%	+11.0%	71%	64%	+10.2%
all	14	+22.6%	+11.0%	71%	64%	+10.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.0%	64%	+10.2%
10%	+0.3%	64%	-0.4%
15%	-9.4%	50%	-10.0%
20%	-18.2%	36%	-18.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late +25% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage

Net worth$71

Realized+$34

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses10 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)14 / 17

History coverage76d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown33%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$21	$21	+$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$39	+$17	+44%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Jun 16	$10	$0	+1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	Apr 09	$5	+$4	+83%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04?	Apr 05	$10	−$10	-100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 4?	Apr 05	$5	+$3	+61%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?	Apr 04	$10	+$6	+61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 4?	Apr 04	$15	+$5	+32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4?	Apr 04	$14	−$6	-42%
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Apr 04	$10	+$4	+37%
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Apr 04	$10	+$5	+54%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap	Apr 04	$2	+$3	+137%
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?	Apr 03	$3	−$2	-70%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Apr 03	$1	$0	-6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$42	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$11	22h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	SELL Yes	52¢	$11	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$39	22h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	SELL Yes	77¢	$6	22h
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	73d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	73d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	73d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 4?	SELL Yes	91¢	$20	73d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	73d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 4?	BUY Yes	68¢	$15	73d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4?	SELL Yes	30¢	$8	73d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 4?	BUY Yes	61¢	$5	73d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	73d
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	SELL Yes	89¢	$14	73d
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	SELL Yes	83¢	$15	73d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 4?	BUY Yes	47¢	$4	73d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem	BUY Yes	68¢	$21	74d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap	BUY Yes	41¢	$2	74d
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?	SELL Yes	18¢	$1	74d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	SELL Yes	45¢	$1	74d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1	74d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	BUY Yes	48¢	$9	74d
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	60¢	$3	75d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	75d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1	76d
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY Yes	54¢	$10	76d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.81 · official $70.81 (match) · 33 history records