Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
77 0x7709…3470 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$597 (-6%) realized −$597 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$475per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$214
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$220
sports 33% +$214
politics 12% −$587
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.2% -19.6% 72% 22% -10.4%
≤30d 18 -11.2% -19.6% 72% 22% -10.4%
≤90d 18 -11.2% -19.6% 72% 22% -10.4%
all 21 -12.2% -20.5% 71% 19% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 19% -14.9%
10% -28.1% 5% -23.1%
15% -35.1% 5% -30.5%
20% -41.4% 5% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$192 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$597
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage146d
Avg bet$475
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $390 +$7 +2%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $371 +$23 +6%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $351 +$23 +6%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -91%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $300 +$55 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $131 +$168 +128%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $239 −$146 -61%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $116 +$15 +13%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $100 +$15 +15%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $93 +$8 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $636 −$396 -62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,131 +$21 +2%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $1,101 +$26 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,003 +$60 +6%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $901 +$23 +2%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 24 $299 +$14 +4%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 23 $900 −$601 -67%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 23 $897 +$70 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $398 51m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $390 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $393 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $371 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 9h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports $2 10h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 97¢ $374 10h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 91¢ $351 11h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming $0 12h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming $2 12h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $355 12h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 84¢ $300 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $300 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $131 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $116 31h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $115 32h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 87¢ $100 33h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston SELL Taylah Preston 99¢ $101 33h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 91¢ $93 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $2 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 23¢ $91 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 55¢ $239 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $239 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $636 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,152 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,131 2d
Germany to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,127 2d
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,101 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 95¢ $1,063 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 89¢ $1,003 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records