Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x7702…fcef crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,015 (-9%) realized −$2,203 · open +$188
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%56W / 36L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$1,754
14 days−$1,754
30 days−$1,754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$2,234
other 22% −$11
sports 19% +$255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -59.4% -63.3% 24% 24% -37.2%
≤30d 33 -59.4% -63.3% 24% 24% -37.2%
≤90d 77 -8.9% -17.6% 58% 47% -19.3%
all 92 -8.4% -17.2% 61% 40% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 40% -18.5%
10% -25.1% 30% -26.3%
15% -32.3% 20% -33.4%
20% -39.0% 14% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$123 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$1,699
Realized−$2,203
Unrealized+$188
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses56 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage584d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Over 82¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,220 +$220 (+22%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 73¢ 68¢ $511 $479 −$32 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $504 +$154 +31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$160 -79%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$32 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 +$65 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $401 +$54 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $403 +$149 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$14 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$45 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $318 −$266 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1,344 −$153 -11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 +$50 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$74 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 17 $824 −$824 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 17 $100 +$80 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 16 $100 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 16 $200 −$66 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 16 $100 +$68 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 16 $100 +$58 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 16 $100 +$46 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 04 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 04 $1,190 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 02 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 02 $100 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 02 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 02 $100 +$64 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 02 $100 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 02 $100 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 02 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 02 $100 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1 5m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 6m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 8m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 8m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 11m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $202 49m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $43 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 32h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 32h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 46h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $266 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $201 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,699.35 · official $1,699.35 (match) · 304 history records