Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76ff…a353 crypto 1310 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,803 (-9%) realized −$1,803 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate69%1152W / 518L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day127.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$287
other 6% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 657 -52.0% -56.5% 37% 8% -54.7%
≤30d 1670 -19.9% -27.6% 69% 23% -36.8%
≤90d 1670 -19.9% -27.6% 69% 23% -36.8%
all 1670 -19.9% -27.6% 69% 23% -36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 23% -36.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 9% -42.8%
15% -40.8% 5% -48.3%
20% -46.6% 3% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$1,803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1152 / 518
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1670 / 1310
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day127.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1670 Trades
no open positions (491 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $398 −$398 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 29m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 46m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 57m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.17 · official $180.00 (match) · 3500 history records