Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76fe…0c74 world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% $0
other 19% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -3.9%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -10.5% -19.0% 39% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -26.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -40.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage463d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $88 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Dec 13 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $46 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $46 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $26 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $16 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $39 15d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $7 15d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $46 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $6 16d
Will Walmart buy TikTok? SELL No 100¢ $7 356d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 370d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? BUY Yes $0 385d
Will Walmart buy TikTok? BUY No 96¢ $8 424d
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? SELL No 96¢ $8 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.26 · official $43.26 (match) · 47 history records