Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
76 0x76fd…ab71 other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$125 (+3%) realized +$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate55%45W / 37L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$20
14 days−$6
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$47
crypto 12% −$31
world 12% −$5
sports 4% +$75
politics 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
economics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.0% -13.2% 12% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 61 +0.1% -9.4% 52% 28% -7.9%
≤90d 82 +0.6% -9.0% 55% 23% -7.8%
all 82 +0.6% -9.0% 55% 23% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 23% -7.8%
10% -17.7% 17% -16.6%
15% -25.7% 13% -24.7%
20% -33.0% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses45 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage75d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $59 −$1 -2%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Jun 16 $54 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 15 $45 −$1 -3%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $65 −$17 -26%
EU dissolves before 2027? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $60 $0 +0%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $118 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $41 +$20 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $47 −$7 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $45 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $39 +$6 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $41 −$4 -10%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 27 $42 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 23 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 23 $10 −$9 -90%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 23 $43 +$26 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 23 $129 +$49 +38%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 21 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 21 $14 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 21 $13 +$17 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 21 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 21 $7 −$6 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 21 $22 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 21 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 21 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 21 $11 +$16 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 21 $14 −$6 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 21 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 21 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $51 36m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $56 37m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 96¢ $58 1h
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $59 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $55 24h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $54 24h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $45 36h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 97¢ $9 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 36h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $44 36h
NATO dissolves before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $67 37h
NATO dissolves before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $67 47h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $48 2d
EU dissolves before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $63 2d
EU dissolves before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $63 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $65 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $60 9d
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $60 9d
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $61 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $21 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $40 11d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $41 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $41 13d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $47 13d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 13d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.41 · official $107.26 (match) · 225 history records