Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76f7…d7cd weather 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,865 (-10%) realized −$1,867 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate47%109W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$535
7 days−$535
14 days−$780
30 days−$1,549
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% −$515
crypto 34% −$1,891
other 3% −$384
sports 3% −$153
economics 1% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +24.0% +12.2% 22% 22% -34.7%
≤30d 76 -16.4% -24.3% 34% 22% -38.0%
≤90d 230 -15.1% -23.1% 47% 23% -25.2%
all 230 -15.1% -23.1% 47% 23% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 23% -25.2%
10% -30.5% 15% -32.3%
15% -37.2% 10% -38.9%
20% -43.4% 7% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$43 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$1,867
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses109 / 121
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 233
History coverage82d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 26? No 96¢ 100¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $318 −$160 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $135 −$129 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $326 −$17 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $249 −$19 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$103 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $61 −$57 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $66 −$63 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $119 +$85 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $113 +$34 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $54 −$51 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $134 +$199 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $280 +$131 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $89 −$84 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $79 +$101 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$40 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $72 −$45 -63%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $146 −$139 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $77 −$15 -20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$47 +338%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$17 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$22 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $80 −$78 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $82 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $74 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $68 −$14 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $38 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $95 −$18 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 10 $82 −$78 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $277 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $431 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $308 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $329 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.37 · official $51.37 (match) · 888 history records