Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76f6…97f7 other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$17
world 31% −$1
sports 8% $0
politics 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -1.7% -11.0% 21% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -1.7% -11.0% 21% 0% -9.6%
all 51 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 2% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -8.4%
10% -17.5% 2% -17.2%
15% -25.5% 2% -25.2%
20% -32.8% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.28 per $1 lost it wins $5.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage262d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -14%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $72 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $7 −$1 -12%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $8 $0 -1%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $19 +$14 +72%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 24 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 24 $46 −$1 -1%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $49 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 21 $21 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $133 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Nov 18 $21 $0 +1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) by KPop Dem Oct 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 23 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $33 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $24 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $9 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $37 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $34 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $34 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $33 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $35 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $4 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $34 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.73 · official $32.73 (match) · 279 history records