Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76f4…5f86 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% $0
other 24% −$1
politics 21% $0
sports 9% $0
tech 8% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -4.5% -13.6% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -3.8% -12.9% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 35 -0.8% -10.3% 31% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage277d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $77 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 −$1 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $13 −$2 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $39 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 14 $29 $0 -2%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 13 $28 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 07 $7 $0 +3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 05 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 29 $28 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Sep 24 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 3h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $2 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $34 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $36 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $33 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $3 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $35 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $12 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $13 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $37 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $2 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $39 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $36 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $6 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $41 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $41 30d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $41 30d
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 88¢ $3 251d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $27 251d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $27 252d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? SELL No 98¢ $28 252d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? BUY No 98¢ $12 252d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $11 252d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records