Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76f4…07f6 world 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
politics 24% −$2
other 20% −$4
sports 9% −$6
economics 4% $0
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.9% -13.0% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -6.1% -15.0% 26% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 67 -1.3% -10.7% 34% 1% -9.6%
all 79 -2.5% -11.8% 34% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 5% -9.9%
10% -20.2% 4% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 4% -26.4%
20% -35.0% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage527d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $89 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $39 +$3 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $12 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $59 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $48 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $96 +$3 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $7 −$5 -64%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $51 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $59 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $84 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $57 −$1 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $78 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $69 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $49 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $149 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1 $0 -18%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 12 $2 $0 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $93 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $45 27m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $30 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $9 32h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $17 32h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $4 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $20 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $42 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $33 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $9 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $39 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $28 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $13 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.30 · official $3.88 (match) · 362 history records