Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76f4…12de crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+5%) realized +$112 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day67.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$22
other 8% −$34
finance 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 46% +4.5%
≤30d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 46% +4.5%
≤90d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 46% +4.5%
all 26 -0.2% -9.7% 46% 46% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 46% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 35% -5.5%
15% -26.3% 35% -14.7%
20% -33.5% 35% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$112
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day67.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 19¢ 6¢ $27 $8 −$19 (-71%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Up 9¢ 1¢ $41 $7 −$34 (-84%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Up 3¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$40 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$45 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$35 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$11 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$17 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$31 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $16 16m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 3¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 39m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 6¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $16 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 46m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 9¢ $8 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 11¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $10 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 12¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.94 · official $23.59 · 68 history records