Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
76 0x76f2…cb77 politics 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$808 (-72%) realized −$805 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -92% what you keep after slip
Net edge-92%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 330d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$808
other 26% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-91.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 3 -90.8% -91.6% 0% 0% -97.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -91.6% 0% -97.0%
10% -92.4% 0% -97.3%
15% -93.2% 0% -97.5%
20% -93.8% 0% -97.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -91% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$269 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$805
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage330d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $284 $281 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Aug 04 $144 −$144 -100%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 04 $100 −$72 -72%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Aug 03 $592 −$592 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $289 1h
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi BUY Yes 17¢ $44 328d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election SELL Yes 1¢ $28 328d
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi BUY Yes 16¢ $100 329d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election BUY Yes 3¢ $100 329d
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio BUY No 16¢ $592 329d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.20 · official $281.20 (match) · 6 history records