Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
76 0x76f1…49a1 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$265 (+16%) realized +$265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate81%25W / 6L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$276
14 days+$256
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$160
sports 44% +$93
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +15.9% +4.9% 85% 58% +6.2%
≤30d 31 +11.2% +0.6% 81% 58% +4.5%
≤90d 31 +11.2% +0.6% 81% 58% +4.5%
all 31 +11.2% +0.6% 81% 58% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 58% +4.5%
10% -9.0% 35% -5.5%
15% -17.8% 23% -14.6%
20% -25.8% 13% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.23 per $1 lost it wins $5.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses25 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage9d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $172 +$32 +18%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $19 −$11 -58%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $72 +$11 +16%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $235 +$37 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $180 +$55 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $47 +$4 +9%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $4 −$2 -42%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -61%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 +$6 +197%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $132 +$21 +16%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $104 +$28 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$35 +50%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -90%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $59 +$2 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $43 +$3 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 +$6 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $29 +$8 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$27 -90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $172 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 86¢ $72 20h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 86¢ $235 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $235 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $180 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $47 26h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $2 27h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 80¢ $4 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 28h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 47h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 47h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 86¢ $132 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 78¢ $104 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $69 3d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 94¢ $65 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $65 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 97¢ $59 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $56 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $38 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $29 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records