Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
76 0x76f1…1cfd other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$21 (+15%) realized +$12 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip
Net edge+72%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$27
tech 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+71.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +37.0% +23.9% 100% 100% +23.9%
≤30d 1 +37.0% +23.9% 100% 100% +23.9%
≤90d 2 +89.7% +71.7% 100% 100% +92.2%
all 2 +89.7% +71.7% 100% 100% +92.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.7% 100% +92.2%
10% +55.2% 100% +73.8%
15% +40.2% 100% +57.0%
20% +26.5% 50% +41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +112% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt +112% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage55d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 63¢ 68¢ $120 $129 +$9 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $13 +$18 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 63¢ $122 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 54d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $13 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.57 · official $128.57 (match) · 5 history records