Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
76 0x76ec…baec other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$804 (+29%) realized +$876 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$669
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -52.8% -57.3% 33% 33% +26.4%
≤30d 6 -52.8% -57.3% 33% 33% +26.4%
≤90d 6 -52.8% -57.3% 33% 33% +26.4%
all 6 -52.8% -57.3% 33% 33% +26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.3% 33% +26.4%
10% -61.4% 33% +14.3%
15% -65.1% 33% +3.2%
20% -68.6% 0% -6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$6 · ×62.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.17 per $1 lost it wins $31.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$771
Realized+$876
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $500 $512 +$12 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 43¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 16¢ $100 $24 −$76 (-76%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $894 +$353 +39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $936 +$407 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $208 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $104 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $521 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $270 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $312 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $312 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $312 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $312 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $312 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $771.33 · official $775.64 (match) · 26 history records