Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
76 0x76ec…d630 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,813 (-10%) realized +$104 · open −$2,917
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$527per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,033now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +56.8% +41.9% 100% 29% +56.4%
≤30d 27 +79.8% +62.7% 56% 37% +50.8%
≤90d 27 +79.8% +62.7% 56% 37% +50.8%
all 27 +79.8% +62.7% 56% 37% +50.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.7% 37% +50.8%
10% ← realistic here +47.1% 33% +36.3%
15% +32.9% 33% +23.2%
20% +19.9% 30% +11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +136% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$96 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$5,033
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$2,917
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions25
Markets (closed)27 / 52
History coverage29d
Avg bet$527
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,012 $1,020 +$9 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1,198 $767 −$431 (-36%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 44¢ 27¢ $1,208 $753 −$455 (-38%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,439 $751 −$689 (-48%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 41¢ 24¢ $1,270 $734 −$536 (-42%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $602 $614 +$12 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $1,060 $291 −$769 (-73%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-94%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$10 (-95%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 22-28? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 35¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $27 +$73 +264%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 22-28? Jun 24 $33 +$43 +129%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 15-21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 15-21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 15-21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 15-21? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Jun 21 $55 −$46 -83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $159 +$116 +73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $67 −$60 -90%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? Jun 20 $126 −$113 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 20 $69 −$58 -83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $68 −$59 -86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $22 +$37 +171%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $81 −$36 -45%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 15-21? Jun 17 $85 −$73 -85%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 16 $154 +$92 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $2,173 −$608 -28%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $476 +$687 +144%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in June? Jun 05 $515 +$918 +178%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 05 $566 +$330 +58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $487 +$197 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $999 +$163 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 57m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $53 57m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $108 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 97¢ $21 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL No 95¢ $20 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $156 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 97¢ $20 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 3¢ $19 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $245 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 43¢ $870 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 48¢ $757 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,033.05 · official $4,940.06 · 859 history records