Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76e3…583e other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 559d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$54 (+8%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 24L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$54
politics 9% $0
other 7% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 26 +2.0% -7.7% 8% 4% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 4% -2.1%
10% -16.5% 4% -11.5%
15% -24.6% 4% -20.1%
20% -32.0% 4% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$0 · ×531.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×70.91 per $1 lost it wins $70.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage559d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Sep 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Aug 19 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Jun 10 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $1 $0 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Oilers vs. Kings Apr 24 $61 +$55 +89%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 26 $0 $0 +0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 03 $289 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $8 24d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 56d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 61d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $10 80d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 81d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 96d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 96d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 116d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 116d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 145d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 145d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 182d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 182d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 216d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 216d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 234d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 234d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? SELL No 100¢ $9 265d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 266d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 298d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 299d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 335d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 336d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 369d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 369d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 369d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL Yes $1 401d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records