Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76e0…3488 sports 389 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$287 (-11%) realized −$266 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%134W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days+$57
14 days+$71
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$377
other 2% −$6
crypto 0% −$5
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +7.4% -2.8% 47% 44% +2.9%
≤30d 167 -6.7% -15.6% 43% 41% -18.6%
≤90d 363 -20.0% -27.6% 31% 30% -28.2%
all 383 -9.4% -18.1% 35% 33% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 33% -22.5%
10% -25.9% 31% -29.9%
15% -33.1% 30% -36.7%
20% -39.6% 26% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$266
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses134 / 249
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions6
Markets (closed)383 / 389
History coverage156d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 41¢ 32¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) Paul 49¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 31¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$17 +206%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $4 +$3 +76%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $56 −$17 -31%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $8 +$7 +91%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $8 −$7 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$5 +66%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $9 +$7 +75%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $23 −$22 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $16 +$67 +408%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $18 −$17 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $11 +$8 +72%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $5 +$14 +294%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $17 −$11 -64%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $9 −$8 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $16 −$13 -83%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $36 +$47 +132%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $12 +$18 +149%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$66 +427%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $3 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 10 $8 +$10 +134%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 10 $8 +$15 +196%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 10 $26 +$91 +356%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 −$10 -76%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $5 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 6m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 32¢ $5 8m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $5 15m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $4 17m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $25 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 21¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $3 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 38¢ $3 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $5 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $5 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 58¢ $5 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $4 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $2 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 76¢ $7 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 42¢ $4 5h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) BUY Paul 49¢ $4 7h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $5 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 78¢ $30 10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 79¢ $8 10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 17¢ $5 10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 39¢ $5 10h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $3 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 37¢ $2 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $3 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $2 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 36¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.48 · official $25.73 (match) · 1611 history records