Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76e0…960a sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-7%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$18
other 26% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-61.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -56.9% -61.0% 20% 20% -17.6%
≤30d 10 -56.9% -61.0% 20% 20% -17.6%
≤90d 10 -56.9% -61.0% 20% 20% -17.6%
all 10 -56.9% -61.0% 20% 20% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.0% 20% -17.6%
10% -64.7% 20% -25.5%
15% -68.1% 20% -32.7%
20% -71.3% 20% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$8 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$17 +83%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $18 −$15 -82%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $30 +$35 +114%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -84%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $37 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $3 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $18 3h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 18h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY 12¢ $3 20h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 20h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 23h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $6 23h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? AND Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Englan BUY 2¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records