Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76dd…0e54 world 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,260 (+2%) realized +$1,257 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate63%98W / 58L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$467per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$260
7 days+$159
14 days+$155
30 days−$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$306
other 12% +$754
sports 5% +$490
politics 2% −$52
crypto 0% −$83
culture 0% −$158
economics 0% +$3
finance 0% −$22
tech 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 33% +0.2%
≤30d 31 +5.3% -4.8% 52% 23% -11.7%
≤90d 94 +8.9% -1.4% 64% 32% -6.9%
all 156 -0.2% -9.7% 63% 30% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 30% -8.0%
10% -18.3% 17% -16.8%
15% -26.2% 13% -24.9%
20% -33.5% 9% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$92 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$1,257
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses98 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage262d
Avg bet$467
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $316 +$260 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $189 +$123 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $132 −$17 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $428 −$37 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $316 −$66 -21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $96 +$5 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $107 +$189 +178%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $1,516 +$140 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $4,879 +$192 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $252 +$262 +104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 27 $353 −$43 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $2,061 +$341 +16%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $284 −$26 -9%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $388 +$312 +80%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $2,203 −$588 -27%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $7,862 −$1,962 -25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $213 −$180 -84%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $25 +$3 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 24 $280 −$9 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $427 +$61 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $436 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $236 +$4 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $1,713 +$150 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $2,003 +$124 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $2,722 +$134 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $35 −$3 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $1,020 −$6 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 20 $218 +$11 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 20 $100 −$20 -20%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $200 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $378 +$34 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $554 +$94 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $840 +$119 +14%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 15 $38 +$2 +6%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $1,517 +$99 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 14 $327 −$46 -14%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? May 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 11 $121 +$861 +713%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 11 $18 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 10 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 09 $10 −$1 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $1,212 +$153 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,163 +$22 +2%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $823 +$225 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $576 57m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 12h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $294 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $104 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $312 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $56 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $57 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $77 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $95 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $80 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $136 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $25 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $96 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $105 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 18¢ $9 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 76¢ $39 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 75¢ $39 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $124 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $66 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 85¢ $296 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $12 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $95 14d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $196 14d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $201 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.99 · official $88.99 (match) · 1407 history records