Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
76 0x76db…6987 world 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$227 (+0%) realized +$352 · open −$125
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,597per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$23,349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days+$197
14 days+$244
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$17
economics 6% +$87
tech 6% −$1
crypto 2% +$1
other 1% −$27
politics 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +62.6% +47.1% 100% 33% -8.0%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 71% 29% -8.6%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 71% 29% -8.6%
all 14 +0.5% -9.1% 71% 29% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 29% -8.6%
10% -17.8% 29% -17.4%
15% -25.7% 21% -25.4%
20% -33.0% 14% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$8 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.04 per $1 lost it wins $8.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$23,349
Realized+$352
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions17
Markets (closed)14 / 31
History coverage30d
Avg bet$1,597
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $9,980 $9,995 +$15 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $7,992 $7,996 +$4 (+0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1,756 $1,713 −$43 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $952 $987 +$35 (+4%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $630 $760 +$129 (+20%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 30¢ 58¢ $285 $551 +$266 (+93%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 70¢ 44¢ $699 $445 −$254 (-36%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 52¢ 49¢ $185 $174 −$11 (-6%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $163 $171 +$7 (+4%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 61¢ 50¢ $173 $141 −$32 (-19%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 37¢ 48¢ $93 $121 +$28 (+30%)
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? No 64¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 17¢ $370 $84 −$286 (-77%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $53 $60 +$6 (+12%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Yes 42¢ 68¢ $24 $39 +$15 (+61%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 65¢ 77¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $9,809 +$190 +2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? Jun 16 $2,203 +$2 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +186%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$10 +47%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $9,970 +$30 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $107 +$6 +5%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 06 $1,152 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 -17%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +24%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $32 +$18 +56%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 50¢ $52 5m
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 5m
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5m
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 51¢ $11 5m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL No 50¢ $2 6m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $25 9m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 9m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $3 9m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 9m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 10m
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 51¢ $6 11m
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 11m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 11m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $118 19m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $126 19m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 26m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $219 28m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $40 29m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 74¢ $227 29m
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL No 49¢ $10 32m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 34m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 58¢ $54 34m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 34m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $123 37m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $115 39m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $12 39m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $141 46m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $140 47m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 48m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,348.71 · official $23,371.86 (match) · 194 history records