Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76d5…3a36 crypto 408 markets active 4d ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$682 (-6%) realized −$695 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate55%222W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$503
world 20% +$148
finance 14% −$446
tech 7% +$43
other 3% +$2
sports 3% +$35
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.9% -24.8% 80% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 5 -16.9% -24.8% 80% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 390 -16.7% -24.6% 56% 25% -15.8%
all 406 -18.6% -26.3% 55% 25% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 25% -15.6%
10% -33.4% 20% -23.7%
15% -39.8% 16% -31.1%
20% -45.7% 15% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$711
Realized−$695
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses222 / 184
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)406 / 408
History coverage88d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $400 $413 +$13 (+3%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $298 $298 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $190 +$10 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $371 +$29 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $295 +$5 +2%
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? May 17 $500 +$2 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 16 $267 +$16 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 04 $303 −$303 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 04 $244 −$244 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 04 $143 −$142 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 04 $94 −$92 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 02 $97 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 02 $150 +$11 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 02 $384 +$16 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? May 02 $398 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 30 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $865 +$227 +26%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 18 $18 +$7 +39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 18 $288 +$12 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $704 +$124 +18%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 15 $200 +$42 +21%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $300 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 11 $158 +$3 +2%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 08 $100 +$20 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $42 +$24 +56%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $25 +$23 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 07 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $298 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $75 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $495 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $12 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $295 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 92¢ $371 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 95¢ $190 6d
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $472 30d
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 32d
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL T1 17¢ $17 32d
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 15¢ $11 32d
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Gen.G 85¢ $78 32d
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 15¢ $4 32d
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Gen.G 85¢ $187 32d
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 79¢ $252 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 85¢ $240 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 43d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 43d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $228 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY Yes 71¢ $96 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY Yes 46¢ $94 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY Yes 71¢ $47 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 85¢ $39 43d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $398 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $7 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $710.94 · official $710.94 (match) · 1231 history records