Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76d2…5b9a crypto 840 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,985 (-14%) realized −$1,957 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%399W / 439L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$538
7 days−$1,122
14 days−$2,449
30 days−$2,585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$1,395
other 14% −$1,217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 392 -11.8% -20.2% 59% 58% -20.3%
≤30d 837 -13.2% -21.5% 48% 47% -25.8%
≤90d 837 -13.2% -21.5% 48% 47% -25.8%
all 838 -13.2% -21.4% 48% 47% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 47% -25.8%
10% -28.9% 47% -32.9%
15% -35.8% 34% -39.4%
20% -42.1% 27% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$1,957
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses399 / 439
Open positions2
Markets (closed)838 / 840
History coverage94d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 838 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 77¢ 72¢ $49 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +32%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$12 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$22 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$9 -17%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$23 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$21 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$17 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$10 +27%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$38 +150%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$21 +48%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$24 +60%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$23 +55%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$21 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$9 +27%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $38 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$6 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$13 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +27%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $50 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $45 14m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 17m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $40 17m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 19m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $14 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $47 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $18 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $43 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 41m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $25 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $49 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $42 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $43 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $25 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $47 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $43 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $39 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.08 · official $37.76 · 2363 history records