Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
76 0x76d2…2f4d other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$217 (+5%) realized +$221 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days+$274
14 days+$251
30 days+$827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$67
sports 25% +$289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 50% +10.5%
≤30d 20 +18.9% +7.5% 60% 60% +22.9%
≤90d 30 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% -3.5%
all 30 +13.6% +2.8% 50% 50% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 50% -3.5%
10% -7.1% 50% -12.7%
15% -16.0% 47% -21.1%
20% -24.3% 40% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$119 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$221
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage69d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $81 +$67 +82%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $121 −$75 -62%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $86 +$80 +93%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $36 +$17 +48%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $142 −$140 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $113 −$110 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$70 +227%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $488 +$342 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $312 −$187 -60%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $116 +$31 +27%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $56 +$64 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$15 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$30 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $131 +$54 +41%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $470 +$330 +70%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $225 +$246 +109%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $413 −$406 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $203 −$200 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$42 +413%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $158 −$155 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $153 +$222 +145%
Will Hibernian FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw? May 03 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $204 +$351 +172%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $150 −$146 -97%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? Apr 13 $220 −$220 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $148 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 26¢ $46 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 67¢ $121 2h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $81 12h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 26¢ $51 13h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) SELL Japan 10¢ $53 13h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan $36 14h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 51¢ $86 14h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $142 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in BUY 16¢ $36 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Scotland win BUY $26 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $41 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $31 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $830 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $488 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $82 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $149 7d
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall SELL Fury 99¢ $147 7d
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 78¢ $116 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $118 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $163 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $105 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.93 · official $195.93 · 61 history records