Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
76 0x76d1…0ac0 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$17
politics 35% −$15
sports 6% +$14
tech 5% −$2
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 129 +0.8% -8.8% 5% 5% -9.6%
all 140 +3.4% -6.5% 9% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 8% -9.6%
10% -15.4% 6% -18.2%
15% -23.6% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.1% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×9.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage114d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $323 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $34 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $213 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $180 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $260 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $183 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $236 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $231 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $229 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 04 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $256 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $663 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $233 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $261 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $236 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $213 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $222 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $255 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $184 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $184 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $387 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $475 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $237 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 4d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 4d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 7d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 9d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 9d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 13d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 13d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 14d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 18d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 18d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 18d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 19d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $216 19d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $216 21d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 22d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 23d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $213 23d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $213 24d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $193 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 396 history records