Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76d0…7f96 world 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$2
other 25% −$2
sports 16% +$4
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% +$1
finance 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 50 +0.1% -9.5% 36% 4% -9.7%
all 64 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage529d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $107 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +17%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $200 +$3 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $57 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $87 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $55 −$1 -3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $4 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $54 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $53 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $93 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $71 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $9 −$2 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $44 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $81 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $3 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +8%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $44 $0 -1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 27 $1 $0 +11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $308 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $586 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $13 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $266 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $268 −$5 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $243 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $53 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $2 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $20 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $3 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $26 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $40 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $13 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $55 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.92 · official $58.32 (match) · 257 history records