Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76ca…e170 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized +$20 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$58
other 43% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -49.4% -54.2% 33% 33% -64.5%
≤30d 6 -49.4% -54.2% 33% 33% -64.5%
≤90d 6 -49.4% -54.2% 33% 33% -64.5%
all 6 -49.4% -54.2% 33% 33% -64.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.2% 33% -64.5%
10% -58.6% 33% -67.9%
15% -62.6% 33% -71.0%
20% -66.3% 17% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$37 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 37¢ 32¢ $200 $170 −$30 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +42%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $204 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $35 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 39h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.89 · official $269.48 (match) · 11 history records