Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76c8…e383 crypto 313 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,988 (-22%) realized −$4,058 · open −$930
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%18W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,541
7 days+$2,380
14 days+$5,602
30 days+$6,465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$9,982
finance 5% −$363
world 5% +$5,502
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -5.2% -14.2% 10% 10% +88.9%
≤30d 86 +90.6% +72.4% 13% 13% +78.2%
≤90d 187 -6.7% -15.6% 7% 7% +56.3%
all 302 -33.2% -39.5% 6% 6% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 6% -37.8%
10% -45.3% 6% -43.8%
15% -50.6% 6% -49.2%
20% -55.4% 6% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +98% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$624 vs −$53 · ×11.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$1,925
Realized−$4,058
Unrealized−$930
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses18 / 284
Open positions11
Markets (closed)302 / 313
History coverage185d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,123 $1,067 −$56 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $740 $369 −$371 (-50%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $251 $158 −$93 (-37%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $130 $98 −$32 (-25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $136 $76 −$60 (-44%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $120 $50 −$70 (-58%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $79 $38 −$41 (-52%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $55 $27 −$28 (-50%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $51 $21 −$30 (-59%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $115 $16 −$98 (-86%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $57 $5 −$52 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $734 +$3,719 +507%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $54 −$51 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $21 −$19 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$41 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $39 −$37 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $93 −$87 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $121 −$46 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$207 +418%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$48 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $80 −$75 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $57 −$13 -23%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $224 −$211 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $102 −$96 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $429 −$402 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $334 −$275 -82%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $104 −$52 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,034 −$977 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $161 −$151 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $209 −$196 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $241 −$226 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $108 −$101 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $38 −$35 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $252 +$1,705 +678%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $87 −$81 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $95 +$80 +84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $104 +$2,928 +2819%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $18 −$17 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $66 −$63 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $17 +$49 +289%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 +$265 +2756%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $16 +$82 +511%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $15 +$361 +2415%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $26 −$24 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$912 +9252%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $12 −$11 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $8 −$7 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $64 −$50 -78%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 56m
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $664 56m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 92¢ $667 57m
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $518 57m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 58m
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $37 58m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 92¢ $667 59m
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $101 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $157 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,260 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $18 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 92¢ $900 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $84 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 89¢ $89 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $435 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,924.63 · official $1,924.63 (match) · 718 history records