Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76c2…cc05 sports 214 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%136W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$3
world 16% −$1
politics 5% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 207 -1.2% -10.6% 63% 60% -11.1%
≤90d 213 -1.0% -10.4% 64% 59% -10.6%
all 213 -1.0% -10.4% 64% 59% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 59% -10.6%
10% -19.0% 57% -19.2%
15% -26.8% 49% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 29% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses136 / 77
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)213 / 214
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Harmon: Youssef Kadiri Hassani vs Hiromasa Koyama Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
ITF Focsani: Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni vs Sophie Greiner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 05 $1 +$1 +73%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 05 $1 $0 +42%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1 $0 +38%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 05 $1 $0 +40%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $1 +$1 +67%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $1 $0 +36%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $1 +$1 +65%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 05 $1 $0 +42%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 05 $1 $0 +32%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 05 $1 +$1 +55%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $1 $0 +48%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 05 $1 $0 +40%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 05 $1 +$1 +57%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $1 +$1 +70%
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $1 $0 +38%
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 04 $1 +$1 +65%
Tyler: Braden Shick vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 04 $1 $0 +48%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 04 $1 +$1 +67%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Birmingham: Alex Bolt vs Arthur Fery Jun 04 $1 $0 +44%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 04 $1 $0 +34%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 04 $1 +$1 +60%
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Giles Hussey Jun 04 $1 +$1 +60%
Heilbronn: Max Hans Rehberg vs Marvin Moeller Jun 04 $1 +$1 +76%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 04 $1 $0 +46%
Perugia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Viola Turini Jun 04 $1 $0 +32%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 04 $1 +$1 +55%
Tyler: Murphy Cassone vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 04 $1 +$1 +55%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $1 $0 +32%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $1 +$1 +62%
Foggia: Carole Monnet vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 04 $1 +$1 +60%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 04 $1 +$1 +67%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Erika Andreeva Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
ITF Focsani: Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni vs Sophie Greiner BUY Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni 72¢ $1 9d
ITF Harmon: Youssef Kadiri Hassani vs Hiromasa Koyama BUY Youssef Kadiri Hassani 61¢ $1 9d
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu BUY Yuta Shimizu 75¢ $1 10d
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling BUY Henry Searle 68¢ $1 10d
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller BUY Luka Mikrut 57¢ $1 10d
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero BUY Diego Dedura-Palomero 70¢ $1 10d
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic BUY Nikola Bartunkova 62¢ $1 10d
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon BUY Lautaro Midon 73¢ $1 10d
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Andrea Lazaro Garcia 72¢ $1 10d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet BUY Carole Monnet 66¢ $1 10d
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Danilina/Krunic BUY Danilina/Krunic 71¢ $1 10d
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal BUY Yunchaokete Bu 73¢ $1 10d
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 59¢ $1 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 72¢ $1 10d
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana BUY Rebeka Masarova 75¢ $1 10d
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov BUY Timofey Skatov 60¢ $1 10d
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Francisca Jorge 64¢ $1 10d
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova BUY Darya Astakhova 70¢ $1 10d
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Eliakim Coulibaly BUY Eliakim Coulibaly 60¢ $1 10d
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 58¢ $1 10d
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 67¢ $1 10d
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Taylah Preston 63¢ $1 10d
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran BUY Tuncay Duran 71¢ $1 10d
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva BUY Rina Saigo 71¢ $1 10d
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny BUY Liam Draxl 63¢ $1 10d
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling BUY Karl Poling 58¢ $1 10d
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 72¢ $1 11d
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 60¢ $1 11d
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova BUY Petra Marcinko 63¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 374 history records