Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

76 0x76bd…e584 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$93 · open −$92

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$63per market

Trades / day6.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+5.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+16.5%	+5.4%	33%	33%	-13.8%
≤30d	3	+16.5%	+5.4%	33%	33%	-13.8%
≤90d	3	+16.5%	+5.4%	33%	33%	-13.8%
all	3	+16.5%	+5.4%	33%	33%	-13.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.4%	33%	-13.8%
10%	-4.7%	33%	-22.0%
15%	-13.9%	33%	-29.5%
20%	-22.3%	33%	-36.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$71 vs −$38 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$111

Realized+$93

Unrealized−$92

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$63

Trades / day6.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$105	$111	+$6 (+5%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$98	$1	−$97 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$47	−$46	-98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$31	−$31	-99%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 15	$29	+$71	+250%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	7¢	$50	1h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	7¢	$50	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	13¢	$47	13h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	3¢	$2	13h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	3¢	$14	13h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal?	BUY Yes	3¢	$15	13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$108	14h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	28¢	$29	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.40 · official $111.40 (match) · 10 history records