Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76bc…009f sports 536 markets active 1h ago coverage 437d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$831 (-7%) realized −$820 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%207W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$124
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$688
other 41% −$489
politics 2% +$7
crypto 1% +$36
world 0% −$8
culture 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 46% -0.8%
≤30d 84 -8.2% -16.9% 44% 44% -6.9%
≤90d 337 -14.8% -22.9% 39% 38% -17.0%
all 532 -13.6% -21.9% 39% 37% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 37% -18.6%
10% -29.3% 36% -26.4%
15% -36.2% 32% -33.5%
20% -42.4% 29% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

437d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized−$820
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses207 / 325
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions4
Markets (closed)532 / 536
History coverage437d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $276 $290 +$13 (+5%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 47¢ 48¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 25¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$43 -80%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $57 +$5 +9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $20 +$5 +26%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $7 +$8 +111%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) Jun 18 $41 +$55 +136%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $91 −$8 -9%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 +$46 +86%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$37 +46%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$25 +484%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $15 +$11 +70%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$20 +71%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$19 +46%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $134 −$3 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -7%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $54 −$30 -55%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $56 +$52 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$20 +77%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 +$38 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $28 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $14 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 16¢ $5 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 81¢ $42 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 29¢ $15 6h
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) SELL Lehecka 61¢ $12 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $36 6h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 73¢ $16 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $8 6h
Czechia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 80¢ $15 6h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 8h
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) BUY Lehecka 52¢ $10 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $31 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 8h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 46¢ $10 8h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Zandschulp (+1.5) SELL Paul 99¢ $96 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.93 · official $338.17 (match) · 1643 history records