Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76bb…4548 sports 396 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,286 (-7%) realized −$945 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%186W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days+$140
14 days+$95
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$768
other 6% −$105
crypto 3% −$56
politics 1% −$13
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -10.6% -19.1% 53% 45% -5.5%
≤30d 172 -11.8% -20.2% 48% 42% -10.2%
≤90d 395 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 42% -14.4%
all 395 -11.5% -19.9% 47% 42% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 42% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 35% -22.6%
15% -34.6% 23% -30.1%
20% -41.0% 17% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$945
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses186 / 209
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions1
Markets (closed)395 / 396
History coverage52d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $231 +$16 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$14 -18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $129 +$28 +22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $38 −$31 -80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $153 −$14 -9%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $132 +$51 +39%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $153 +$40 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $82 −$67 -82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $153 +$28 +18%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $204 +$31 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$57 +56%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 13 $26 −$11 -42%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 13 $76 −$9 -12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $143 +$25 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 −$5 -21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $76 +$16 +20%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $26 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $106 +$19 +18%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 12 $51 −$7 -14%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $102 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $77 +$43 +56%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $26 +$46 +180%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $62 −$33 -54%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $138 +$19 +13%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $36 +$25 +68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $79 +$6 +8%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 +$11 +41%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $26 +$13 +50%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $84 +$27 +32%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $54 +$16 +30%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $31 −$15 -48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $77 +$86 +112%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $123 −$13 -11%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) Jun 06 $36 +$72 +198%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $205 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 71¢ $39 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $39 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 74¢ $116 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 26¢ $22 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 57¢ $51 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 44¢ $20 3h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $26 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $157 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 79¢ $22 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $24 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 80¢ $107 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 4¢ $7 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 8h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $78 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $26 10h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $51 10h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 37¢ $61 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $12 10h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 58¢ $51 11h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 59¢ $51 11h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $184 11h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 70¢ $132 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $26 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $26 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 96¢ $191 21h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.98 · official $21.98 (match) · 3500 history records