Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76b9…c54c other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+3%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$0
14 days+$41
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$4
crypto 23% −$4
sports 20% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.1% -23.2% 29% 29% -7.9%
≤30d 14 -13.5% -21.7% 29% 29% +18.1%
≤90d 14 -13.5% -21.7% 29% 29% +18.1%
all 14 -13.5% -21.7% 29% 29% +18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 29% +18.1%
10% -29.2% 21% +6.8%
15% -36.1% 21% -3.5%
20% -42.3% 21% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$8 · ×3.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 +$38 +383%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$2 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$13 +126%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$68 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 8d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records