Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
76 0x76b8…7367 sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,413 (-20%) realized −$3,407 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%66W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,837
world 15% −$293
crypto 12% −$605
other 4% −$415
finance 3% −$340
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 31 -9.2% -17.9% 68% 26% -26.2%
≤90d 164 -12.8% -21.1% 40% 29% -27.9%
all 164 -12.8% -21.1% 40% 29% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 29% -27.9%
10% -28.6% 23% -34.8%
15% -35.5% 21% -41.1%
20% -41.8% 18% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$65 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$3,407
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses66 / 98
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage89d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 1¢ 1¢ $15 $8 −$6 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$2 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 01 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $244 +$28 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 01 $214 +$36 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $222 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 01 $276 −$104 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $87 +$14 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 01 $259 −$259 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 01 $253 +$14 +6%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $506 −$490 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 01 $2 $0 -2%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Apr 01 $83 −$83 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $92 −$7 -8%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 01 $84 −$2 -2%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $8 $0 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 01 $36 +$1 +4%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 01 $55 −$52 -94%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5 Apr 01 $75 +$33 +44%
Devils vs. Rangers Apr 01 $56 +$64 +113%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 01 $73 −$73 -100%
Red Wings vs. Penguins Apr 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 01 $31 +$27 +90%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $45 +$15 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 1¢ $6 57m
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 1¢ $4 58m
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 1¢ $5 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 14d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 14d
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 14d
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 14d
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 14d
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $32 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.26 · official $8.26 (match) · 580 history records