Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:55:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

76
0x76b8…4c9c
other · 325 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$5,816 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,648 · open +$164
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,161
Realized+$5,648
Unrealized+$164
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses184 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)318 / 325
History coverage156d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit9%
Chart Positions 7 History 318 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$46
14 days+$348
30 days+$1,531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $899 $907 +$8 (+1%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $746 $757 +$12 (+2%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1? Yes 11¢ 32¢ $103 $299 +$196 (+191%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $78 $101 +$23 (+29%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1? No 88¢ 98¢ $71 $80 +$9 (+12%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 91¢ 10¢ $95 $11 −$84 (-89%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? No 83¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $143 $0 −$143 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 65 and 66 million views on day 6? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $98 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 06 $32 +$26 +80%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 06 $48 +$2 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 06 $276 +$16 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 05 $56 +$14 +25%
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $137 +$47 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $769 +$7 +1%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 05 $9 +$6 +70%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 04 $52 −$13 -26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $55 +$23 +43%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 03 $474 +$20 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4? Jun 03 $170 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $196 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $264 +$39 +15%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $55 +$5 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $605 +$18 +3%
43 million or more views Jun 01 $170 +$6 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 31 $475 +$9 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 31 $985 +$42 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 31 $2 −$1 -60%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $36 +$13 +37%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $44 +$51 +114%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $64 +$9 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 24 $1,001 +$472 +47%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 22 $423 −$4 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 65 and 66 million views on day 6 May 22 $16 −$15 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 May 21 $79 +$4 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 May 21 $180 +$140 +78%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 21 $396 −$109 -28%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 May 20 $8 +$3 +39%
Will MrBeast's next video get 58 million or more views on day 4? May 20 $63 +$17 +27%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 57 million views on day 4 May 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will MrBeast's video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 4? May 19 $57 +$2 +4%
Will Luxembourg come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Serbia come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 44 and 46 million views on day 2 May 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Sweden be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will San Marino come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 19 $9 +$24 +266%
Will Bulgaria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Albania come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $47 −$20 -41%
Will Portugal come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Italy come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% +$5,915
culture 2% −$52
tech 0% −$39
world 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY No 83¢ $4 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 BUY No 88¢ $72 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 18¢ $45 4h
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL Yes 74¢ $42 4d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL Yes 70¢ $36 4d
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 5d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 98¢ $98 5d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" be the May film with the highest dome BUY No 99¢ $842 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee SELL Yes 85¢ $70 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee BUY Yes 67¢ $56 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee BUY No 95¢ $172 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee BUY No 94¢ $104 7d
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL No 88¢ $18 7d
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL No 90¢ $29 7d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 SELL Yes 99¢ $184 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 SELL No 100¢ $122 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 SELL No 100¢ $360 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 SELL No 100¢ $39 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 SELL No 100¢ $20 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 SELL No 100¢ $20 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 SELL No 100¢ $15 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 SELL No 100¢ $13 8d
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY No 88¢ $47 8d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 SELL No 100¢ $188 8d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 50¢ $15 8d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 28¢ $9 8d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 54¢ $61 8d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" be the May film with the highest dome BUY No 96¢ $58 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.2% +7.9% 100% 20% -0.4%
≤30d 105 +14.7% +3.8% 52% 32% +4.9%
≤90d 214 +5.4% -4.7% 54% 30% -2.7%
all 318 +11.8% +1.1% 58% 34% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 34% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 28% -10.5%
15% -17.4% 19% -19.2%
20% -25.5% 14% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,160.51 · official $2,160.51 (match) · 3500 history records